I Can’t Watch

The FRS on on ESPN tonight and I can’t watch.

I’m sitting here listening to the game in front of the PC. This is the 3rd and final game in this series against the Tampa Bay Rays who are one of the teams ahead of them in the Sox’s road to the playoffs. They really needed to win all three of these games and they started right by winning Friday, but they lost last night. On Friday there were only 34 games left in the season and the Red Sox were 5-1/2 games behind both the Rays and the MFY. That means they will have to win 6 more games than either one of those two teams to make the playoffs. If the Yankees and Rays play at the same pace they have so far this year they will finish those remaining 34 games at a record of 21 wins and 13 loses. So to pull ahead the FRS will have to play 27-7 ball, and while that pace is not impossible, it is highly improbable.

According to Baseball Prospectus the Red Sox’s chances of making the playoffs, as of this morning, stood at 18%, 13.5% or 7.5%, depending on which version of their “playing the rest of the season a million times” you believe, regular, ELO or PECOTA. And they find themselves in the position that either Tampa, Baltimore or Toronto has been in for the last decade, playing good enough baseball to make the playoffs except for the fact that the Yankees and themselves were in front of them.

Update: After last night’s loss the FRS odds of making the playoffs now stand at 11%, 10% & 4.5%